Trump's Economic Approval Hits All-Time Low Two Weeks Before the Midterms

A new CNBC survey finds eight out of 10 Americans calling the economy fair or poor, with Republican pessimism climbing fast heading into the Nov. 3 election.

Trump's economic approval rating has hit an all-time low with less than two weeks before the midterm elections, according to the new CNBC All-America Economic Survey. Eight out of 10 Americans now rate the economy as fair or poor, the highest share since December 2023. What stands out isn't just that Democrats and independents are down on the economy. Republicans are souring too. Overall, 63% of the public is pessimistic about the economy, up 1 point from July, and that now includes 35% of Republicans, up 6 points from July and the highest Republican pessimism of either Trump term. As pollster Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies put it, that shift is coming from Trump's own side: "Since Trump has been president, Republicans have held on to a small margin saying that the current economy is either excellent or good. And now that has kind of broken and changed."

Why Jobs and Unemployment Are Suddenly a Democratic Issue

For years, Republicans had an edge on jobs and the economy as a campaign issue. This survey shows that flipping. Democrats are now seen as better than Republicans on handling jobs and unemployment, and on Iran, an issue that went from +2 Republican to +5 Democratic. That matters because when voters stop trusting the party in power on jobs specifically, it usually means they're hearing about layoffs, hiring freezes or stalled offers in their own circles, not just reading headlines.

If you're job hunting right now, this is the backdrop you're operating in. Employers read these same surveys. When consumer and business confidence drops, hiring slows first and raises come later, before any headline numbers catch up.

What the Price Numbers Mean for Anyone Running a Small Business

The survey found that concern about the cost of food, gas and housing is the top issue for 57% of respondents, and food now worries people more than gas, 34% to 23%. For a small business owner, that's not an abstract polling number. It's your customers deciding what they can still afford to spend on you. In the eight states with competitive Senate races this cycle, respondents now prefer Democratic control by 4 points, even though Trump carried those same states by a combined 10 points in 2024. That kind of swing tells you voters in places that backed Trump are now willing to vote the other way on pocketbook concerns alone.

If you own a business, the practical read is this: whichever party controls Congress after Nov. 3 will shape the tax, regulatory and spending debates that hit your margins next year. Don't wait until January to think about it.

What I See From the Insurance and Property Side

Running my insurance agency and having managed commercial property before that, I've watched consumer pessimism show up in renewals and leases well before it shows up in a news story. When people say prices are rising faster than usual, as 55% did in this survey, up 5 points from a year ago, that pressure lands on landlords and tenants alike. Retail tenants cut back on staff or hours before they miss rent, and property owners feel it in vacancy and renewal negotiations months later. Insurance works the same way: when household and business budgets tighten, the first thing to go is often coverage that feels optional, right up until a claim proves it wasn't.

Income Pressure Is Already Showing Up at the Register

The survey's net economic approval for Trump is now -31, the lowest of either of his terms, with approval at 34% and disapproval at 65%, both worse than the July reading of 38% approve and 60% disapprove. That's a fast move, just three months. For a household, the economic approval number is really a proxy for whether people feel their paycheck is keeping up. Government corruption was the single biggest concern named, at 36%, ahead of food and gas costs individually, but taken together the cost of food, gas and housing topped the list.

If your income is hourly, commission-based, or tied to a small business you run, this is exactly the environment where customers delay purchases and negotiate harder. Plan your cash flow assuming that continues through the end of the year.

What to Watch Between Now and November 3

Overall, Americans prefer Democratic control of Congress 52% to 45%, a 7-point edge that grew from July. Turnout will decide how much of that shows up in results: 72% of Democrats say they're highly interested in this election versus 62% of Republicans, and independents favor Democratic control 49% to 33%. Both pollsters cautioned against assuming a wave. As Roberts said, it's a battle between "the map and momentum," since the shift is concentrated and each party's base is consolidating rather than crossing over in large numbers.

Watch the actual results in those eight competitive Senate states on Nov. 3 before assuming anything nationally. If you run a business or manage your own household budget, use the next two weeks to look at your pricing, your lease terms, and your insurance renewals now, before whatever comes out of this election changes the rules you're operating under.