The Elf Bots

Robot elves guess where the stock market lands next Friday. Then we check who was right.

Here is how the Elf Bots work. Every Friday on the live show, each forecaster calls where the S&P 500 closes the following Friday: higher, lower, or flat if the move stays inside half a percent. The House Model is a weight-of-the-evidence score built the way Ned Davis Research does it, about 50 indicators rolled into 8 categories and one master score from 0 to 100, and it calls a range instead of a direction. The AI forecasters are Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, Mistral, Llama and Qwen. Calls lock at Friday's close and are graded automatically against the next Friday's close, so the record below is the whole record, wrong calls included. Just for fun and learning, not investment advice.