Laid Off? Be Your Own Boss?

Is AI Coming for Your Job? The Senate Asks

PBS NewsHour · full hearing · 1 hour 27 minutes

Today's Stories

1. Iran: "make a deal" or "finish it off"

• Brent oil closed Friday at $116.72, its highest close since April and its third straight weekly gain.
• Trump on Fox, Sunday: "Do I finish it off... or do I make a deal? It's getting to be decision time."
• Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iran's leaders in Tehran today. The State Department ordered non-essential staff out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks.

If you own a business: fuel and freight costs keep rising. Put a fuel surcharge clause in your quotes.

Sources: CNBC · CNBC

2. AI is the reason companies give for cutting jobs

• American Express: cutting 5% of its workforce (it had about 77,000 people). Its CFO says the cuts are partly to "prepare for AI."
• Barclays: about 5,000 jobs, tied to technology. eBay: about 1,000 jobs (9%), its second round this year.
• Challenger counts 120,136 job cuts blamed on AI so far this year, the top reason given.

If you own a business: experienced finance and back-office people are now looking for work. Some will be your best contractors, partners or first hires.

Sources: CNBC · CNBC · Challenger, Gray & Christmas

3. Cracks in the AI spending boom

• Meta fell nearly 7% after earnings. It burned $2.12 billion in free cash in the quarter, and today announced plans to raise up to $95 billion.
• AI cloud companies CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN are each down more than 30% this month. Investors are charging CoreWeave over 15% to hold its bonds.
• Elon Musk on Sunday: the "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death."

If you own a business: when lenders get nervous about big borrowers, they get careful with small ones too. Line up your credit before you need it.

Sources: CNBC · CNBC · CNBC

4. Anthropic files to go public

• The maker of Claude filed with the SEC today to list on Nasdaq under "ANT," possibly as soon as November.
• It's the first of the big AI labs to open its books to the public.

If you own a business: the AI tools a one-person business can use keep getting better and cheaper.

Sources: The Hill

5. Housing: cheaper mortgage insurance, and a limit on Wall Street buyers

• Trump's Oct 22 executive order tells agencies to cancel mortgage insurance on eligible future loans and expand cheaper refinancing.
• Treasury proposed rules that would bar large investors (350+ homes) from buying single-family homes starting Jan 7, 2027.
• The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.32% (Freddie Mac), down from 7.40% a week earlier.

If you own a business: less competition from big investors opens room for small landlords and builders. A rental needs a landlord policy, not a homeowners policy.

Sources: CNBC · The Hill · Freddie Mac

6. DOJ sues over Alaska's Senate race

• The Justice Department asked a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing possible voter confusion with a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot.
• Democrat Mary Peltola is the challenger. Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority.

If you own a business: tax and spending decisions wait on who controls Congress. Plan for both outcomes.

Sources: CNBC

7. Etsy bans AI-made guides

• Etsy now bans AI-generated recipes, patterns and other "functional guides." Sellers have to show a real finished item.
• Etsy says buyers who can't tell what's AI-made shop less.

If you own a business: customers are paying for real work by real people. Show your work.

Sources: CNBC

8. Brazil: Lula wins a fourth term, markets drop

• Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%. Brazil's stock exchange hit a circuit breaker this morning and Petrobras fell 16%.

Sources: CNBC

Jobs, AI and Your Money

1. Hiring is barely moving

• September added 29,000 jobs. July was revised to a loss of 10,000.
• Layoffs are still low: new jobless claims fell to 194,000. But people already out of work are staying out longer: continuing claims rose to 1.73 million.
• Companies planned the fewest September hires since 2011 (Challenger). The October jobs report comes Nov 6, three days after the election.

If you own a business: it's a buyer's market for talent. Good people are available.

Sources: BLS · Labor Department · Challenger

2. The Fed decides Wednesday

• Rates are 3.75% to 4% after a hike in September. Chair Kevin Warsh's Fed announces its next move Wednesday at 2pm Eastern.

If you own a business: if you're borrowing to start or grow, every hike shows up in your payment.

Sources: Federal Reserve

3. Gas $4.28, diesel $6.28

• Regular gas is up $1.27 from a year ago. Diesel is up $2.66 (EIA).
• Trump says the Defense Production Act will put $150 million toward more refining for diesel and gasoline.

If you own a business: price fuel into every quote, or it comes out of your pocket.

Sources: EIA · The Hill

4. Health insurance keeps climbing

• Employer family coverage now averages about $28,000 a year, and workers pay about $7,000 of it (KFF survey).
• Proposed 2027 ACA premiums: a median increase of 15%.

If you own a business: if you leave a job to start a business, health coverage is the first bill to plan for.

Sources: NPR on the KFF survey · Our story · 2027 premiums

This week

• Tue: new home sales. UPS, Boeing, PayPal and Visa earnings.
• Wed: Fed decision, 2pm. Microsoft and Alphabet earnings.
• Thu: first read on third-quarter GDP, and PCE inflation. Amazon earnings.
• Fri: the Elf Bots lock their next calls at the close.

Start Your Own Business

Source: Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics

The first six steps

1. Plan itWho buys, what it costs to start, how you'll pay for it.
2. Pick a structureSole owner, LLC or corporation. It changes your taxes and what you personally risk.
3. Register and licenseYour name with the state, plus the licenses your city, county and state require.
4. Get an EIN, freeStraight from the IRS. "You never have to pay a fee for an EIN."
5. Separate bank accountKeep business money out of your personal account from day one.
6. Insure it firstBefore your first customer, not after your first claim.

Sources: SBA, Launch your business · IRS, Get an EIN

Insurance questions new owners ask

Source: SBA, Get business insurance

Starting something? Drop your business idea in the chat and I'll tell you what to think about first.

The Elf Bots

See the full scoreboard →

Stories About Stories

Real things that happened running my businesses.

Tonight's Sponsors

My own companies.