ADP Employment Report Shows October Hiring Streak Hits 16 Months as Wages Accelerate
Payroll processor ADP says October was the 16th straight month of job gains, with workers who switched jobs pulling in the fastest pay growth since early 2024.
ADP's employment report for October showed hiring extending to a 16th straight month in a row, and wage growth accelerating for workers who changed jobs. ADP's chief economist, Dr. Nela Richardson, said "employers of all sizes were hiring last month." That is the headline, but the details underneath it tell you more about where the labor market actually stands right now than the streak number does.
Where the October Hiring Actually Happened
ADP's data showed the services side of the economy picking up speed while manufacturing slowed. The gains showed up in trade, transportation and utilities, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, financial activities and construction. That spread across sectors matters more than any single number. It means this was not one industry propping up the whole report.
Richardson also said job-changers were lured by "a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay." Put together, earnings growth for those workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024. Employers are not just opening positions, they are paying more to get people to move into them.
What This Means If You're Running or Starting a Business
If you own a business right now, this report tells you that competing for workers in construction, health services, hospitality and financial services got harder in October, not easier. Bonuses, overtime and more hours are what employers are using to win people over, which means if you are hiring for one of those roles, you should expect to match that or lose the candidate to someone who will.
For someone thinking about starting a business instead of chasing a job, this cuts the other way. A labor market where employers are leaning on overtime and bonuses to keep people is a labor market where a lot of workers are tired, maxed out on hours, and open to a different arrangement. That is exactly the environment where people decide to go out on their own.
The View From My Insurance Agency and My Marketing Company
In my insurance agency, hiring and wage trends like this show up first in payroll-based premium audits for commercial clients: more hours and higher base pay means a business's actual payroll exposure can run ahead of what they estimated at the start of the policy term, and that gets settled at audit time. Business owners in construction and hospitality especially should expect that if their payroll grew the way this report suggests payroll grew nationally.
On the contractor side, through my marketing company I see small home-service businesses competing directly with the same services-sector hiring ADP flagged. If leisure, hospitality and trade businesses are raising pay to hold onto staff, a roofer or lawn care company down the street is fighting for the same labor pool and needs to budget for it, not just react to it.
The Other Number Worth Watching: Job Openings
CNBC reported the same week that the Bureau of Labor Statistics put September job openings at 7.52 million, up 333,000 from August, and above the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 7.15 million. Taken with ADP's hiring streak and wage data, that is two separate measures pointing the same direction heading into Friday's payrolls report.
The ADP report itself framed this as useful for the Federal Reserve: consistent hiring can keep unemployment low while the Fed stays focused on fighting inflation, instead of having to choose between the two.
- ADP: October was the 16th straight month of job gains
- Services hiring accelerated, manufacturing slowed
- Job-changer wage growth: fastest pace since March 2024
- JOLTS: September job openings at 7.52 million, up 333,000 from August, above the 7.15 million consensus
What to Watch Before and After Friday's Jobs Report
If you are a job seeker, pay attention to which sectors ADP flagged as hiring: trade, transportation, utilities, education, health services, leisure, hospitality, financial activities and construction. That is where the openings are right now, and where employers are reportedly offering more to get people in the door.
If you run a business, especially in construction, hospitality or financial services, check your actual payroll numbers against what you budgeted for the year. If your hours and overtime crept up the way this report suggests they did nationally, you want to know that before an audit or a renewal tells you, not after.