Obamacare Premiums Set to Jump 13 Percent in 2027 After a 26 Percent Hike
A new KFF analysis of 2027 marketplace rates shows a second straight year of double digit increases, landing right as open enrollment opens.
Obamacare premiums are set to jump by 13 percent in 2027, according to a new KFF analysis, and that comes on top of a 26 percent hike that already hit enrollees between 2025 and 2026. If you are one of the 19.2 million Americans enrolled in a marketplace plan, this is your second straight year of a double digit increase, and it lands right as the 2027 open enrollment period opens this Sunday.
KFF built this analysis on new pricing data the Trump administration released for the 30 states that use the federal health insurance marketplace. For comparison, federal employee plans and employer sponsored plans are expected to rise by around 10 percent over the same stretch, so the marketplace is taking a bigger hit than coverage most people get through a job.
Why the Increase Keeps Compounding
Part of the answer is money that used to be there and now is not. Obamacare's enhanced premium tax subsidies expired earlier this year after Republican lawmakers blocked a Democrat led push to extend them. Without that extra subsidy money covering part of the bill, insurers are pricing plans to reflect what they actually expect to collect from fewer, costlier enrollees.
Enrollment itself already turned down. A KFF analysis from May found enrollment fell in 2026 after four straight years of record growth, and the Trump administration has also added new enrollment barriers this year as part of a stated crackdown on alleged fraud. None of this is new territory for Obamacare under this administration. In the first Trump term, premiums rose 20 percent in 2017 and 34 percent in 2018, according to KFF.
What Happens to a Risk Pool When Subsidies Disappear
This is where my insurance agency work gives me a read a lot of news coverage misses. When subsidies drop and paperwork requirements get tighter, the people who drop out first are the healthy ones who feel the cost least urgently. The people who stay enrolled tend to be the ones who need the coverage most. That shifts the whole pool toward sicker, older, higher cost enrollees, and insurers price the following year's plans to match that pool, not the one that existed before people left.
That mechanic is a big reason a second straight double digit increase does not require costs of care to double. It just requires enough of the cheaper-to-insure people to walk away. A new CMS rule published in the Federal Register on October 27 changes how enrollees have to prove they qualify for financial help, and tighter verification tends to knock out people on the margins through paperwork, not fraud, which pushes the pool the same direction.
The Real Cost for the Self-Employed and Small Business Owners
A lot of the 19.2 million people on these plans are not working a W-2 job with group health coverage. They are self-employed, running a small business, or doing gig and contract work, which means health insurance is not a line item their employer absorbs, it is overhead they carry themselves. A 13 percent jump on top of last year's 26 percent jump raises the real cost of being your own boss, and that is a cost someone has to decide to start a business while staring at.
It cuts into the job market too, just from the other direction. For a worker weighing whether to take a part-time or gig role without benefits against a W-2 job that includes group coverage, a bigger premium jump tips that decision further toward holding onto whatever job comes with health insurance attached, even if it pays less or fits worse. That makes people slower to move toward open roles or take the leap into working for themselves, at a moment when more people are being pushed to build their own job in the first place.
What to Watch and Do Before Coverage Locks In
This is landing at a moment when affordability is already the top issue on people's minds. A KFF survey published this month found six in ten voters are concerned about affording their health insurance and out of pocket medical bills, ranking health care costs on par with gas prices as the most important affordability issue of this election cycle. Health care costs have become a central midterm issue because of exactly this kind of number.
The administration has tried to soften the blow in other ways. It is sending one time $500 checks to nearly 1 million Americans it says were overcharged for Obamacare, and it already sent $90 each to more than 20 million seniors on Medicare Part B, about $2 billion total. Democrats have said that if they retake Congress, restoring the expired subsidies and health care tax credits will be a top priority.
None of that changes what you need to do this weekend. Open enrollment opens Sunday: go back into the marketplace and actually re-shop your plan rather than letting it auto-renew, because your subsidy eligibility may have changed along with the price. If you are self-employed or thinking about starting a business, build the higher premium into your budget now rather than discovering it when the bill comes, and if your household is anywhere near that six in ten who are worried about affording coverage, this is the enrollment period to spend the extra hour comparing plan tiers instead of taking the default.